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Fact-checking Trump-Biden ‘time machine’ viral post



A viral chain message lists financial metrics on the time Joe Biden turned president in order to check them later. However a few of it’s inaccurate.

Following President Joe Biden’s inauguration Wednesday, quite a few social media customers began sharing variations of a “time-machine”-like submit. Principally, posts with details about what was taking place within the U.S. on the day he took workplace from former President Donald Trump.

The posts continuously began with statements like, “For all Biden voters,” after which shared a dozen claims and financial metrics on fuel costs, unemployment and rates of interest, inventory market efficiency, international coverage, and so on.

“I’m making this submit so it would present again up as a future reminiscence on my timeline,” one instance reads. “This isn’t a political dispute. I’m genuinely curious what the subsequent Four years will deliver.”

However, the VERIFY staff has found that the messages are more likely to be problematic as a “time machine or capsule” as a result of the numbers are largely inaccurate.

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THE QUESTION:

Is a protracted record about how Trump left the U.S. economic system, our relationship with North Korea and different points true?

THE ANSWER:

Principally no. The few elements of the record which might be true lack context.

WHY WE ARE VERIFYING:

VERIFY viewer Tasha T. wished to know whether or not this meme of a dozen claims, posted by a pal on social media, is true. For the reason that submit is being repeated on a wide range of platforms and pages, the VERIFY staff dug in to clear it up.

WHAT WE FOUND:

The submit begins, “It’s a tragic day in America because the President Donald J. Trump prepares to depart this workplace. I’m making this submit so it would present again up as a future reminiscence on my timeline.”

Let’s undergo the claims one after the other.

1.  Fuel is presently $1.95 a gallon.

As of Dec. 28, the typical U.S. value for a gallon of fuel was $2.25, says AAA. The final time it was $1.95 was Could to June, a chart on the AAA web page exhibits. Elements that have an effect on the price of fuel embrace costs on the world oil markets, refinery output, taxes and the a part of the nation the place you reside.

2. Rates of interest are 2.25% for a 30-year mortgage.

Mortgage charges fell all through 2020, reaching a nationwide common low of two.65% within the first week of January 2021, says mortgage purchaser Freddie Mac. It initiatives mortgage charges will stay low via 2022 because the Federal Reserve retains rates of interest close to zero to spice up the economic system.

3. The inventory market closed at 30829.40 although we have now been combating COVID for 11 months.

The Dow Jones closed at 30,829.40 on Jan. 6, the day the Capitol was stormed. It reached a brand new excessive of 31,188.38 the day of Biden’s inauguration.

4. Our GDP progress for the third Qtr was 33.1%.

That leap got here after a 31.7% plunge within the second quarter of 2020 because the COVID-19 pandemic took maintain within the U.S., says the Bureau of Financial Evaluation. That adopted a 5% drop in first quarter 2020. The bureau says GDP rebounded 33.4% within the third quarter.

5. We had one of the best economic system ever till COVID and it’s recovering effectively.

This can be a very subjective declare. There’s no definitive metric that determines if the economic system is the “finest.” In the event you’re measuring by shares, the Dow Jones noticed an annualized return of practically 11.8% below Trump, 12.1% below President Barack Obama and 15.9% below President Invoice Clinton, in accordance with MarketWatch in an Inauguration Day evaluation. The Joint Financial Committee Report, put out by Congress, and the Convention Board provide extra particulars on financial efficiency and outlook.

6. We have now not had any new wars or conflicts within the final Four years.

That’s true. The Congressional Analysis Service’s report “U.S. Durations of Warfare and Dates of Latest Conflicts,” up to date June 5, 2020, makes no point out of Trump in regard to new conflicts. The identical is true for his predecessor Obama, who was president for eight years.

7. North Korea has been below management and has not been testing any missiles.

In March 2020, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the ocean, South Korea’s army advised The Related Press. In April 2020, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Workers advised AP that North Korea fired what they presumed had been cruise missiles.

8. ISIS has not been heard from for over Three years.

On Oct. 26, 2019, Trump introduced that U.S. particular operations forces killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the self-proclaimed chief of the Islamic State, in Idlib, Syria. “The U.S. could have helped to interrupt up the ISIS proto-state or ‘caliphate,’ in Syria and Iraq, but it surely has scarcely defeated it,” Anthony H. Cordesman of the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research, a bipartisan suppose tank, wrote in September 2020. 

9. The housing market is the strongest promote it has been in years.

Present-home gross sales fell 2.5% in November from October 2020 however had been 25.8% greater from November 2019, the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors reported. Present-home gross sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual fee of 6.69 million then. 

10. Properties have appreciated at an unbelievable fee and promote effectively. 

A extensively used measure of house costs rose 4.4% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015, 5.4% in 2016, 6.2% in 2017, 4% in 2018 and a pair of.8% in 2019. For October 2020, the S&P/Case-Shiller composite-20 house value index posted a 7.9% year-over-year achieve in house costs. The index surveys house costs in 20 main metro areas within the U.S.

11. And let’s not overlook that peace offers within the Center East had been signed by Four international locations — unprecedented!

The Abraham Accords had been signed Sept. 15, 2020, by the U.S., Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The accords’ function is to normalize relations between these nations. The George C. Marshall European Heart for Safety Research notes that some specialists take into account the accords “not as groundbreaking as claimed,” however provides that they’re “under no circumstances inconsequential.”

12. Unemployment sits at 6.7% regardless of COVID.

In December, each the unemployment fee, at 6.7%, and the variety of unemployed individuals, at 10.7 million, had been unchanged from November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says. Though each measures are steeply decrease than their April highs, the jobless figures had been practically twice their pre-pandemic ranges in February (3.5% and 5.7 million), in accordance with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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