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The Cleveland Browns’ playoff odds are higher than they appear

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With a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, the Cleveland Browns would finish the NFL’s longest lively postseason drought.

CLEVELAND — CLEVELAND — Editor’s notice: the video from the participant above is from Dec. 27, 2020.

When the Cleveland Browns misplaced to the New York Jets on Sunday, many seen the defeat as a major blow to the crew’s playoff possibilities.

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In any case, the Browns had entered Week 16 with round a 90 p.c likelihood of clinching a playoff spot this season, in accordance with numerous forecasts from retailers together with ESPN, 5 Thirty Eight, The New York InstancesSoccer Outsiders and even NBC Information’ Steve Kornacki. However after dropping to the Jets — in a recreation that will have clinched a playoff spot for Cleveland — the Browns have since seen these postseason odds drop to between 53 and 68 p.c, relying on the outlet.

That determine, which varies primarily based on every outlet’s projection system, nevertheless, is prone to be deceptive. This is why:

With the Pittsburgh Steelers having already locked up the AFC North, head coach Mike Tomlin has already introduced that Mason Rudolph will begin at quarterback rather than Ben Roethlisberger. Thus, regardless of Pittsburgh being 12-3, the 10-5 Browns are presently listed as a 9.5-point favourite heading into Sunday.

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So what does should do with the Browns’ playoff odds?

Since Cleveland solely wants a win over the Steelers to safe a playoff spot, the baseline of the Browns’ playoff odds ought to begin with the chance they beat Pittsburgh. With the moneyline now listed at Cleveland -425, there is a 80.95 p.c implied likelihood of the Browns successful on Sunday.

Issue within the situations through which Cleveland may nonetheless qualify for the postseason with a tie or loss, and the Browns’ playoff odds are even greater than that — at the least primarily based on the betting odds. So whereas Sunday’s loss was an simple hit to Cleveland’s possibilities of ending the NFL’s longest lively playoff drought (17 years), it could not have been as huge of successful as some forecasts would lead you to imagine.

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